I needed a week away from the picks to gain my composure (not really, I was insanely busy doing some holiday shopping, working, and other things, my apologies). A couple weeks ago, I once again went 1-3 to down my record to 6-10 on the year. Let’s see if I can land a 4-0 week to get back to .500…
Saturday, December 19
Detroit @ Dallas, 3 pm (all times eastern) – Being a huge “wing-nut”, I always get excited for the few true rivalries the Red Wings have left (since they don’t play an Original 6 team more than once in any given year, piss over Comissioner Bettman!) That being said, the Red Wings are probably playing their best hockey of the year (winners of their last 4 and 5 out of 6). However, the loss of Henrik Zetterberg only adds to the walking wounded in Motown. I think the Wings are catching the Stars at an opportune time because they aren’t playing very well right now. Detroit 3, Dallas 2.
Nashville @ Calgary, 4 pm- The Preds are a hard team to figure out this year. 21 wins this season (T-4 in the NHL) has the sound of a team who scores a lot while giving up very little. Curiously, Nashville scores 2.77 goals per game while, at the same time, they give up 2.77 goals per game. That tells me that this team has as many personalities as one Dr. Jekyll. Which team will show up? My bet is on the lower scoring of the two because Calgary has just returned from a road trip and the Saddle Dome will be bumpin’. Calgary 4, Nashville 1.
Minnesota @ Ottawa, 7 pm- To sum up the season that Ottawa has had so far: they play terrible on the road, you can flip a coin on which team will show up at home, and their goaltending situation with Brian Elliott is mediocre at best. Whether it is Elliott or the young Brodeur who starts in net against Minnesota, the Wild have shaken off their early-season road-ice ineptitude and will score some goal. I don’t think Ottawa will. Minnesota 4, Ottawa 2.
Columbus @ Colorado, 9 pm- If anyone who has seen the Steve Mason from last season, the Jackets have asked that you pin a one-way ticket back to Columbus on his collar and pray that he makes it there. Columbus hasn’t had too many issues scoring goals, but they are 28th in goals allowed at 3.26 per game. Colorado, on the hand, loves to score goals and they do it well at the Pepsi Center. I’ll take an 80% Craig Anderson or a 100% Peter Budaj any day against whoever the Blue Jackets put on the ice. Colorado 5, Columbus 2.
Carp is out today, so I’m going to take my shot at picking games. I realize this post is late, but better than never. Here’s who I’m betting on for the Saturday night games.
Washington at Toronto is the first game on Hockey Night in Canada tonight, and Ovechkin loves the big stage almost as much as Toronto just plain sucks. My Pick: Caps.
Detroit at Nashville. Detroit won in overtime last night on a great goal by Todd Bertuzzi. The Wings are injured, tired, and starting Osgood in net. My Pick: Predators.
Minnesota at Vancouver. Vancouver leads the series 2-1 so far, but that was before Havlat and Backstrom started to get hot. Edler is also out for Vancouver. This could be the Wild’s chance to even the season series on the road. My Pick: Wild
Bonus Pick: Sabres at Rangers in the battle of New York. The Rangers won the last meeting because of Lundquist’s stellar shutout. They’re not going to get that lucky again as today is Ryan Miller’s time to shine. My Pick: Sabres
Here’s a brilliant shootout goal in which Nicklas Hagman pulls the old “blind the goalie and sneak the puck past him” trick that we’ve all pulled in peewee hockey. It’s a pretty simply strategy. If you spray up enough ice, the goalie won’t be able to see where the puck is going. Check it out below:
With the holidays coming posts may be a little slower here, but rest assured we’ll still be doing them. The next few weeks will be a great time to snag the prime waiver prospects while the rest of your league is busy spending time with their families. As a true fantasy hockey guru though, you’ve got to be willing to sacrifice the little things ( like family and showers) to stay on top. Here’s who I’m busy watching while you’re out there leading productive lives and interacting with people without a keyboard in between.
Before we get to that though, I want to do a special, one time section:
Players named Alex worth keeping an eye on:
Alex Goligoski is getting set to return.
Alexander Edler is declining into a sad disappointment. He’s still putting up OK numbers, but nothing like where you drafted him or what you expected out of him.
Alexei Ponikarovsky is technically an Alex, so I don’t want to hear your bitching. He’s also got 11 goals and is only owned in 50% of leagues. Get on that.
Alex Kovalev has only managed 4 goals so far for the Sens. Buy Low. Buy Very Low.
Alexei Kaigorodov is in the minors for Phoenix, and probably won’t see any playing time this year – but I bet you can’t pronounce his name 5 times fast. Try it.
Week 9 Watchlist
I just picked up Nick Antropov in an attempt to raise my dismal plus minus rating. He’s out there in a lot of leagues, and actually has value now that he’s not playing in Toronto.
Brian Boucher is taking over as the Flyers goalie for the next 6 weeks or so while Ray Emery is out injured. Stop reading now and go submit your waiver request if you owned Emery or desperately need help in net. Go ahead, I’ll wait. You don’t want what happened in my league, where a fellow Cheesehole editor who already has 3 prime goalies beats you to the waiver wire….. yes Carp, I hate you.
Mikael Samuelsson has been moved down to the 3rd line, and is seeing less ice time, but hasn’t stopped producing (10/10 with 5 on the PP as of today) His demotion may have caused some paranoid owners to drop him. It may also make him ripe for an under-value trade proposition.
LA is hot right now, and much of that is due to their goaltending, but many of their forwards like Stoll, Simmonds, and Williams are starting to gain traction. Ride them while they’re hot, or trade them if you can. I’m not sure how long this will sustain itself. Personally, I might take a chance on Dustin Brown.
I’ve mentioned him before, but Kyle Okposo (who?) is still only owned in 29% of Yahoo leagues. Yes, he plays on the craptastic Islanders, but he’s got 18 points, 16 PIM, and he plays on the powerplay. He’s not a bad off-day option.
Cam Ward returns from injury today, and may have been dropped in your league. His numbers haven’t been great so far, but I have a feeling he may rebound. He can probably be attained for little more than a bag of pucks right now in your league. It’s worth a shot.
Jimmy Howard is slowly taking over the starter role from Chris Osgood. It’s really tough to own Wings goalies in fantasy. They’re always good for Wins, but Detroit lets up so little shots against that they’re not really worth it for SV% and other categories. But, if you need wins….go wings.
Ryan Whitney has slowly been raising his stock with 13 helpers from the blue line – yet is still seeing a sub 50% ownage rate.
Marek Zidlicky shouldn’t be available in your league. For some reason he is in mine. Waiver claim submitted.
For the first time in three tries, last week I fell short of the .500 mark going 1-3 on my picks. For the season to date, I’m currently 5-7, but looking to make a formidable comeback with my selections for the first weekend in December…
Saturday, December 5
Vancouver @ Carolina, 1 pm (all times eastern)- The third game of a four city east coast road trip puts the Canucks in Carolina for an early afternoon face off with the Hurricanes. Following wins in both New Jersey and Philidelphia, the Canucks are showing that things are returning back to normal with the Sedin brothers skating hard with linemate Alex Burrows. Solid goaltending from Roberto Luongo also adds another layer of depth that not many teams are able to match up against. Sorry, Canes’ fans, but Carolina isn’t one of those teams. Vancouver 3, Carolina 1.
Toronto @ Boston, 7 pm- Having lost Jonas Gustavsson with his second battle against with a nagging heart issue, the Leafs have fallen all the way down to Joey MacDonald in net. On the other hand, with both Tuuka Rask and Tim Thomas playing very well in Beantown, the Bruins are poised to make a run up the Eastern Conference standings with Marc Savard back and producing (thanks in part to a nice contract extension, nonetheless). Watch out though, Phil Kessel’s return to Boston will make this one fun to watch. Boston 4, Toronto 3.
Chicago @ Pittsburgh, 7:30 pm- The Penguins are tied for first in the East while the Blackhawks sit tied for second in the West. Many fans and experts alike wouldn’t be at all surprised to see these two teams battling it out for the Stanley Cup when all is said and done. On top of some great goaltending as of late by Cristobal Huet, Chicago will also feature one, Marian Hossa, former Pens’ star in his first game in Pittsburgh as a Blackhawk. Pittsburgh 5, Chicago 2.
Sunday, December 6
Detroit @ N.Y. Rangers, 7 pm- Another Original Six matchup for the Red Wings, this one at MSG. Their last bout with a long-time foe was in Montreal when they beat the Canadiens a couple weeks ago. This time, I don’t think they will be so lucky. Jimmy Howard has sort of emerged as the best goalie option for Detroit, but the defense in front of him is what worries me. Without Kronwall, Rafalski, and Lilja, the young Detroit D will have to somehow contain a powerful offense led by Marian Gaborik and Vinny Prospal. Watch for this one to get physical, another area where I think the Rangers have an advantage. N.Y. Rangers 3, Detroit 1.
I’m currently in Dallas, where I just watched the Stars beat the Lightning in overtime on Saturday night from the beautiful American Airlines Arena. In that game Steven Stamkos scored on an awesome snap shot from the circles, but his goal a couple of nights earlier is (in my opinion) even better than Ovechkin’s lying on his back goal a few years ago.
Stamkos fires a quick shot on net and then manages to backhand the rebound in out of the air while he’s sitting on his butt and sliding into the boards. You’ve got to see it to believe it:
Once again, last week was a split with two wins coming from Detroit and San Jose, while Vancouver and Atlanta landed me in the loss column. Here are the games to look out for this weekend…
Saturday, November 28
N.Y. Islanders @ New Jersey, 1 pm (all time eastern)- Even if the Islanders turn back in to their perennial selves later in this season, we’ve got to recognize how competitive they’ve been thus far. John Tavares has really had his coming out party and the young cast around him are maturing at a rate faster than we expected. On the other hand, the Devils had played better on the road this year than at home. N.Y. Islanders 3, New Jersey 2.
Florida @ Nashville, 8 pm – Nashville is unquestionably the hottest team in the NHL having won seven in a row before their game Friday night against St. Louis. What isn’t as surprising is how they are getting the wins. They exert more effort, show great teamwork on defense, and are riding a pair of hot goalies to boot. Meanwhile, the Panthers have just nine points on the road this season in 11 games. Nashville 3, Florida 1.
Chicago @ Los Angeles, 10:30 pm- After making all those flattering statements about the Predators, am I going to eat my words when I said they were the hottest team in the NHL, because Chicago has quietly managed one more point in their last 10 games than Nashville has (8-1-1; 17 points versus 8-2-0; 16 points for NSH). Marian Hossa has shown his impact already in his return at San Jose the other night, and Cristobal Huet has turned his game up a few notches since a rough start to the season. As the Hawks wind down this VERY long road trip, I like them to get one more win against the young Kings. Chicago 4, Los Angeles 2.
Sunday, November 29
San Jose @ Vancouver, 10 pm- With the return of Daniel Sedin to the top line in Vancouver, the argument could be made that these two teams have the most productive first lines in the Western Conference. So much explosiveness going against really, really good goalies in this one. Typically, Vancouver is a difficult place to play and when it’s the second game of a back-to-back, it can be that much more frustrating. Vancouver 4, San Jose 3.
The season is now officially past the 25% mark, so now is a good time to address injuries and strategy regarding injured players. We’ll probably have a “first quarter grade” style post coming in the next few days, but for now let’s look at the guys who are sitting on your IR spot, or who may be available as waiver pickups or cheap trades.
Nicklas Kronwall will be out for up to 8 weeks, and is definitely worth picking up in deeper leagues if somebody drops him. He’s a #3 defenseman but he sees his fair share of powerplay time and was on fire before going down last Saturday. On a side note, both Stuart and Erickson should see increased ice time and powerplay chances in his absence. Stuart may be worth a flex play.
Chris Kunitz has been pulled out of the Pens lineup for 2 weeks or so, and despite only having 3 goals (9 assists) to date, he should be good for 20 goals or more this season.
Brian Gionta has a broken bone in his foot and will be out indefinitely. There’s no telling when he’ll return, but these type of injuries usually take a bit of time. I would definitely use an IR spot on him.
Alexander Semin is also out for a while with a wrist injury. He’s a top 20 forward who may now be attainable for a top 50 style player. If you can rip off another owner for him while he’s hurt, do it. Nothing should stop you from trying to acquire Semin… Giggity.
Marc Savard should return to the lineup this week. I wouldn’t play him in weekly leagues, but feel free to roll him out after Monday in daily leagues.
Eric Staal is not only hurt, but he’s slumping too. He should return next week, and might be worth throwing out some trade fliers for frustrated owners.
Andre Markov is still out for another 4 months or so. He’s not worth holding onto, but look out come playoff time when he’ll be the hockey defenseman equivalent of Pedro Martinez – He’ll provide adequate stats for a couple of weeks to a team with an already low waiver priority – thus rendering himself useless.
Rob Blake should be back after thanksgiving.
Ed Jovanovski will most likely play on this current 2 game road trip – not sure which game though.
Cam Ward will be returning in the first week of December (you can bet it will be a home game) but I’m leary of how well he’s going to play. Prior to being injured he wsa 2-9 with a 2.97 / .899 in the save category. Those aren’t stellar numbers, and I’m not confident that the team in front of him has gotten any better.
Nikolai Khabibulin’s sore back would be worth monitoring only if his 3.03 GAA was worth a spot on your roster.
Some bigger names seem to be rounding in to form right now, and believe it or not, most of them are still available. Check out their status in your league if you need a flyer for the coming week…
BUY
Max Afinogenov (Atlanta)- There may be no one in the league hotter than Max right now. Over his last nine games he has just one scoreless outing and has amassed 6 goals and 7 assists over that span. This is a guy who sees a decent amount of powerplay ice time and is right around 20 minutes a night overall. Great value here and with Atlanta continuing to score quite a few goals, I like his outlook. (45% ownership in Yahoo! leagues)
Tomas Fleischmann (Washington)- Currently riding a nine game point streak, Fleischmann is a viable candidate at forward in almost every league. Most would argue that nearly all of this points this season came when Alex Ovechkin was out of the lineup. True, but even when #8 returned to face the Rangers on Tuesday, Fleischmann still netted an assist and landed over 19 minutes of ice time. Grab this hot hand while you can. (26% ownership)
J.P. Dumont (Nashville) – Having seen his share of time on the bench this season with a couple of injuries, owners were a bit frustrated with the Predator winger. Since coming back from his most recent injury though, Dumont has four points in four games (all assists) and has really sparked the Nashville offense in the process. Although he’s not a guy to really blow you away in ice time, he’s a remarkable passer and can land you the all important helper, especially in power play situations. (45% ownership)
Keep an eye on…
Radim Vrbata (Phoenix)- While the Coyote offense is nothing to bank on, Vrbata has been one of the bright spots thus far. He’s got five points in his last five games and has a pair of power play goals to go with a pair of game winning goals. Another good sign is he isn’t afraid to take the shot when the chance is there. Radim’s had seven games this year where he’s landed five or more shots on goal. (19% ownership)
Antero Niittymaki (Tampa Bay) – Still in a situation where he’s splitting time with Mike Smith, Niittymaki is making his case to be the #1 guy for the Lightning. With wins in three of his last five and overtime losses in the other two, he’s only given up three even strength goals in those games. The downside with him is that he faces a lot of shots night in and night out, so if he’s on, expect a good SV%, but if he’s off, you’ll be hurting. (50% ownership)
SELL
Stephane Robidas (Dallas) - While he has decent numbers for a defenseman, Robidas has only two points in his last eight games and is a -4 rating. Another huge concern is the amount of ice time he gets. Because he is averaging about 23 minutes a night, he’s more of a liability in the +/- column than anything. Also consider the fact that with the talent at forward the Stars have, their defensemen don’t land a ton of shots; Dallas defenders have a combined six goals this season.
Dustin Brown (Los Angeles)- The Ryan Smyth injury looks like it will hurt this team more than initially thought, Brown included. In the two and a half games since Smyth went down with an upper body injury, the Kings have looked disorganized and there has been a lot of line shuffling going on. Brown has just two points in his last six games. While he is fifth in the league in SOG, expect him to get fewer chances as defenses will be looking to stop him in Smyth’s absence.
Scott Gomez (Montreal) – Just two goals and nine assists this whole season have made the owners who drafted him furious. They expected a lot because of the Montreal acquisition of Brian Gionta, but with Gio sidelines with a broken foot, Gomez will be looked to to pick up the slack. The Canadiens really didn’t have a powerful scoring presence to begin with, but it looks like all visiting teams will have to do is shut down Mike Camalleri and Gomez in order to keep the Montreal offense in check.
Be very cautious…
Devin Setoguchi (San Jose) – By no means and I endorsing dropping Seto all together, but looking at possible trades wouldn’t be a bad idea. With the nagging injury he’s had so far this season, you might be able to round up a more reliable goal scorer from an owner chomping at the bit to get a big piece of the Shark offense (when he’s healthy).
Sheldon Souray (Edmonton) – It’s good to see the big Oiler defenseman back on the ice, but don’t be so fast to throw him in on a daily basis. He hasn’t really looked like himself in the six games he’s played this year, netting just two assists to date. He might be a bit hesitant to throw his weight around still, so the better option would be waiting for him to show signs before you plays him regularly.
Last week I started my picks with a mediocre 2-2 record. Let’s see if this time around I can better that mark.
Saturday, November 21
Pittsburgh @ Atlanta, 7 pm (all time eastern)- Try and figure out these two seasons so far. If you would have predicted that the Pens and the Thrashers, one-quarter of the way through the season, would both have seven double-digit point scorers, would both have at least 10 wins, and that Atlanta actually has allowed fewer goals than the Pens, you’d be riding high on a massive amount of winnings from whatever “expert” spotted you some crazy odds. The reality is that to this point the Thrashers may be overachievers and the Pens have had some tough injuries to fight through. That being said, I think Atlanta has a point to make to the rest of the league. Atlanta 4, Pittsburgh 3.
Detroit @ Montreal, 7 pm – Many Red Wings fans long for the days when they saw some of the Original Six teams come to the JLA and later in the season, the Wings would return the favor (I fall in this category). Those days are long gone and all we have to look forward to are these special meetings where there is still something big at stake during a regular season game. Flash back just two weeks ago when Detroit made another of these monumental trips to lowly Toronto and got there hides handed to them on a silver platter. I realize that Montreal is somewhat better than the Leafs, but I also realize that Detroit doesn’t roll over and die too often. Detroit 3, Montreal 2.
San Jose @ Anaheim, 10 pm – Quite possibly two of the most exciting teams to watch, regardless of who they are playing. The fact that they are meeting on the same ice just adds to the anticipation. All the way back on October 3, the Sharks came in to the Honda Center and beat Anaheim 4-1. I don’t feel like all that much has changed since then… the Sharks are still one of the best teams in all of hockey and the Ducks are searching for something resembling a defense. San Jose 5, Anaheim 3.
Sunday, November 22
Chicago @ Vancouver, 10 pm- Nobody likes the long, draining trips out to the west coast, especially if you are as far east as Detroit, Chicago, or Nashville and have to do it rather frequently. What makes matters worse is that this game will be the third one in four days for the Blackhawks and Vancouver has enough fire power to match Chicago on normal rest. I did like how well the Hawks played in Calgary on Thursday, but that was arguably the worst game of the year for the Flames. Vancouver 4, Chicago 1.
