I’m currently in Dallas, where I just watched the Stars beat the Lightning in overtime on Saturday night from the beautiful American Airlines Arena. In that game Steven Stamkos scored on an awesome snap shot from the circles, but his goal a couple of nights earlier is (in my opinion) even better than Ovechkin’s lying on his back goal a few years ago.
Stamkos fires a quick shot on net and then manages to backhand the rebound in out of the air while he’s sitting on his butt and sliding into the boards. You’ve got to see it to believe it:
Once again, last week was a split with two wins coming from Detroit and San Jose, while Vancouver and Atlanta landed me in the loss column. Here are the games to look out for this weekend…
Saturday, November 28
N.Y. Islanders @ New Jersey, 1 pm (all time eastern)- Even if the Islanders turn back in to their perennial selves later in this season, we’ve got to recognize how competitive they’ve been thus far. John Tavares has really had his coming out party and the young cast around him are maturing at a rate faster than we expected. On the other hand, the Devils had played better on the road this year than at home. N.Y. Islanders 3, New Jersey 2.
Florida @ Nashville, 8 pm – Nashville is unquestionably the hottest team in the NHL having won seven in a row before their game Friday night against St. Louis. What isn’t as surprising is how they are getting the wins. They exert more effort, show great teamwork on defense, and are riding a pair of hot goalies to boot. Meanwhile, the Panthers have just nine points on the road this season in 11 games. Nashville 3, Florida 1.
Chicago @ Los Angeles, 10:30 pm- After making all those flattering statements about the Predators, am I going to eat my words when I said they were the hottest team in the NHL, because Chicago has quietly managed one more point in their last 10 games than Nashville has (8-1-1; 17 points versus 8-2-0; 16 points for NSH). Marian Hossa has shown his impact already in his return at San Jose the other night, and Cristobal Huet has turned his game up a few notches since a rough start to the season. As the Hawks wind down this VERY long road trip, I like them to get one more win against the young Kings. Chicago 4, Los Angeles 2.
Sunday, November 29
San Jose @ Vancouver, 10 pm- With the return of Daniel Sedin to the top line in Vancouver, the argument could be made that these two teams have the most productive first lines in the Western Conference. So much explosiveness going against really, really good goalies in this one. Typically, Vancouver is a difficult place to play and when it’s the second game of a back-to-back, it can be that much more frustrating. Vancouver 4, San Jose 3.
The season is now officially past the 25% mark, so now is a good time to address injuries and strategy regarding injured players. We’ll probably have a “first quarter grade” style post coming in the next few days, but for now let’s look at the guys who are sitting on your IR spot, or who may be available as waiver pickups or cheap trades.
Nicklas Kronwall will be out for up to 8 weeks, and is definitely worth picking up in deeper leagues if somebody drops him. He’s a #3 defenseman but he sees his fair share of powerplay time and was on fire before going down last Saturday. On a side note, both Stuart and Erickson should see increased ice time and powerplay chances in his absence. Stuart may be worth a flex play.
Chris Kunitz has been pulled out of the Pens lineup for 2 weeks or so, and despite only having 3 goals (9 assists) to date, he should be good for 20 goals or more this season.
Brian Gionta has a broken bone in his foot and will be out indefinitely. There’s no telling when he’ll return, but these type of injuries usually take a bit of time. I would definitely use an IR spot on him.
Alexander Semin is also out for a while with a wrist injury. He’s a top 20 forward who may now be attainable for a top 50 style player. If you can rip off another owner for him while he’s hurt, do it. Nothing should stop you from trying to acquire Semin… Giggity.
Marc Savard should return to the lineup this week. I wouldn’t play him in weekly leagues, but feel free to roll him out after Monday in daily leagues.
Eric Staal is not only hurt, but he’s slumping too. He should return next week, and might be worth throwing out some trade fliers for frustrated owners.
Andre Markov is still out for another 4 months or so. He’s not worth holding onto, but look out come playoff time when he’ll be the hockey defenseman equivalent of Pedro Martinez – He’ll provide adequate stats for a couple of weeks to a team with an already low waiver priority – thus rendering himself useless.
Rob Blake should be back after thanksgiving.
Ed Jovanovski will most likely play on this current 2 game road trip – not sure which game though.
Cam Ward will be returning in the first week of December (you can bet it will be a home game) but I’m leary of how well he’s going to play. Prior to being injured he wsa 2-9 with a 2.97 / .899 in the save category. Those aren’t stellar numbers, and I’m not confident that the team in front of him has gotten any better.
Nikolai Khabibulin’s sore back would be worth monitoring only if his 3.03 GAA was worth a spot on your roster.
Some bigger names seem to be rounding in to form right now, and believe it or not, most of them are still available. Check out their status in your league if you need a flyer for the coming week…
BUY
Max Afinogenov (Atlanta)- There may be no one in the league hotter than Max right now. Over his last nine games he has just one scoreless outing and has amassed 6 goals and 7 assists over that span. This is a guy who sees a decent amount of powerplay ice time and is right around 20 minutes a night overall. Great value here and with Atlanta continuing to score quite a few goals, I like his outlook. (45% ownership in Yahoo! leagues)
Tomas Fleischmann (Washington)- Currently riding a nine game point streak, Fleischmann is a viable candidate at forward in almost every league. Most would argue that nearly all of this points this season came when Alex Ovechkin was out of the lineup. True, but even when #8 returned to face the Rangers on Tuesday, Fleischmann still netted an assist and landed over 19 minutes of ice time. Grab this hot hand while you can. (26% ownership)
J.P. Dumont (Nashville) – Having seen his share of time on the bench this season with a couple of injuries, owners were a bit frustrated with the Predator winger. Since coming back from his most recent injury though, Dumont has four points in four games (all assists) and has really sparked the Nashville offense in the process. Although he’s not a guy to really blow you away in ice time, he’s a remarkable passer and can land you the all important helper, especially in power play situations. (45% ownership)
Keep an eye on…
Radim Vrbata (Phoenix)- While the Coyote offense is nothing to bank on, Vrbata has been one of the bright spots thus far. He’s got five points in his last five games and has a pair of power play goals to go with a pair of game winning goals. Another good sign is he isn’t afraid to take the shot when the chance is there. Radim’s had seven games this year where he’s landed five or more shots on goal. (19% ownership)
Antero Niittymaki (Tampa Bay) – Still in a situation where he’s splitting time with Mike Smith, Niittymaki is making his case to be the #1 guy for the Lightning. With wins in three of his last five and overtime losses in the other two, he’s only given up three even strength goals in those games. The downside with him is that he faces a lot of shots night in and night out, so if he’s on, expect a good SV%, but if he’s off, you’ll be hurting. (50% ownership)
SELL
Stephane Robidas (Dallas) - While he has decent numbers for a defenseman, Robidas has only two points in his last eight games and is a -4 rating. Another huge concern is the amount of ice time he gets. Because he is averaging about 23 minutes a night, he’s more of a liability in the +/- column than anything. Also consider the fact that with the talent at forward the Stars have, their defensemen don’t land a ton of shots; Dallas defenders have a combined six goals this season.
Dustin Brown (Los Angeles)- The Ryan Smyth injury looks like it will hurt this team more than initially thought, Brown included. In the two and a half games since Smyth went down with an upper body injury, the Kings have looked disorganized and there has been a lot of line shuffling going on. Brown has just two points in his last six games. While he is fifth in the league in SOG, expect him to get fewer chances as defenses will be looking to stop him in Smyth’s absence.
Scott Gomez (Montreal) – Just two goals and nine assists this whole season have made the owners who drafted him furious. They expected a lot because of the Montreal acquisition of Brian Gionta, but with Gio sidelines with a broken foot, Gomez will be looked to to pick up the slack. The Canadiens really didn’t have a powerful scoring presence to begin with, but it looks like all visiting teams will have to do is shut down Mike Camalleri and Gomez in order to keep the Montreal offense in check.
Be very cautious…
Devin Setoguchi (San Jose) – By no means and I endorsing dropping Seto all together, but looking at possible trades wouldn’t be a bad idea. With the nagging injury he’s had so far this season, you might be able to round up a more reliable goal scorer from an owner chomping at the bit to get a big piece of the Shark offense (when he’s healthy).
Sheldon Souray (Edmonton) – It’s good to see the big Oiler defenseman back on the ice, but don’t be so fast to throw him in on a daily basis. He hasn’t really looked like himself in the six games he’s played this year, netting just two assists to date. He might be a bit hesitant to throw his weight around still, so the better option would be waiting for him to show signs before you plays him regularly.
Last week I started my picks with a mediocre 2-2 record. Let’s see if this time around I can better that mark.
Saturday, November 21
Pittsburgh @ Atlanta, 7 pm (all time eastern)- Try and figure out these two seasons so far. If you would have predicted that the Pens and the Thrashers, one-quarter of the way through the season, would both have seven double-digit point scorers, would both have at least 10 wins, and that Atlanta actually has allowed fewer goals than the Pens, you’d be riding high on a massive amount of winnings from whatever “expert” spotted you some crazy odds. The reality is that to this point the Thrashers may be overachievers and the Pens have had some tough injuries to fight through. That being said, I think Atlanta has a point to make to the rest of the league. Atlanta 4, Pittsburgh 3.
Detroit @ Montreal, 7 pm – Many Red Wings fans long for the days when they saw some of the Original Six teams come to the JLA and later in the season, the Wings would return the favor (I fall in this category). Those days are long gone and all we have to look forward to are these special meetings where there is still something big at stake during a regular season game. Flash back just two weeks ago when Detroit made another of these monumental trips to lowly Toronto and got there hides handed to them on a silver platter. I realize that Montreal is somewhat better than the Leafs, but I also realize that Detroit doesn’t roll over and die too often. Detroit 3, Montreal 2.
San Jose @ Anaheim, 10 pm – Quite possibly two of the most exciting teams to watch, regardless of who they are playing. The fact that they are meeting on the same ice just adds to the anticipation. All the way back on October 3, the Sharks came in to the Honda Center and beat Anaheim 4-1. I don’t feel like all that much has changed since then… the Sharks are still one of the best teams in all of hockey and the Ducks are searching for something resembling a defense. San Jose 5, Anaheim 3.
Sunday, November 22
Chicago @ Vancouver, 10 pm- Nobody likes the long, draining trips out to the west coast, especially if you are as far east as Detroit, Chicago, or Nashville and have to do it rather frequently. What makes matters worse is that this game will be the third one in four days for the Blackhawks and Vancouver has enough fire power to match Chicago on normal rest. I did like how well the Hawks played in Calgary on Thursday, but that was arguably the worst game of the year for the Flames. Vancouver 4, Chicago 1.
If you missed it, Brad May scored his first goal as a red wing – the only problem is that for some reason they decided it wasn’t a goal. It’s pretty clear from the video that the puck went in, 2 or 3 seconds pass, and then the whistle blows. Have a look for yourself, and try not to think about whether or not the call would have been different if it were Crosby and the Penguins instead of Brad May.
Bonus Video: Ever wonder which city has the most classless fans in the league? Right now, that goes to Anaheim after these fans starting throwing punches when Niedermayer tried to give a stick to a girl in the stands. Check it out:
Hit or miss across the Buy/Sell board from last week, let’s see if we can’t get you some help for this coming week’s action…
BUY
Jason Demers (San Jose) – Once again looking at the stockpile of talent in San Jose, Demers has been consistent most of this season. Most owners would notice the big goose egg sitting in the goal column at the moment, but it’s not for lack of effort. He’s got 10 assists so far and is seeing ice time ranging anywhere from 13 to 18 minutes a night depending on how Todd McClellan is playing the matchups. If you need some helpers, don’t hesitate to look his way. (34% ownership in Yahoo! leagues)
David Perron (St. Louis) - I’m still reluctant to go anywhere near the Blues after my Keith Tkachuk experiment went horribly wrong after their stint in Sweden, but owners may as well ride the hot hand while it’s out there. All but one of the games where he’s recorded at least a point have been multiple-point outings, so they seem to come in spurts. Even more encouraging is that he’s getting some goals on the power play (two of his last 4 have been with the man advantage). (36% owned)
Marek Zidlicky(Minnesota) - Now that the Wild have things pointing closer to the right direction, their players become more feasible fantasy options. Obviously, Koivu and Brunette are the big names that would be the best options, but Marek Zidlicky is gaining momentum as well. 5 points in his last 4 games (2 G, 3 A) to go along with 13 PIM makes him worthy of an “add” in most leagues, especially since he get’s 22+ minutes of ice time a night. (69% owned)
Keep an eye on…
Niclas Bergfors (New Jersey) – Has put up very good numbers in sort of a role position so far (10 points in his last 10 games). Be cautious of jumping right after his as Patrick Elias has returned from the IR and Bergfors’ playing time might be in jeopardy. (9% owned)
Ryan Clowe (San Jose) - You’re probably tired of seeing all these Sharks, but it’s hard to ignore with as many goals as they score. Anyone who is on the same line as Patrick Marleau right now has some sort of value in my mind. Clowe has 33 PIM to-date as well. (46% owned)
Jimmy Howard(Detroit) - For those in need of goaltending help, take a look at the other Detroit net-minder. He’s gotten the start in both of the Wings’ last two games and came up with wins both nights. He’s sporting a 1.00 GAA and a .966 SV% in those games. If Osgood comes up lame in his next outing, Howard may see significantly more time. (6% owned)
SELL
The Carolina Hurricanes – Don’t look around and try to question what I’m getting at here, but the ‘Canes have been dreadful all season. It started with a rush of injuries and hasn’t gotten better even with some key players returning (i.e. Ray Whitney, Eric Cole). Consider that five of their “go-to” guys are pretty much in the cellar of the plus/minus category: Matt Cullen, -8/Joe Corvo, -9/ Joni Pitkanen, -10/ Aaron Ward, -12/ Rod Brind’Amour, -13. There is just no offensive production from the only team in the NHL to average less that 2 goals a game (1.94).
Milan Michalek (Ottawa) – For a guy getting almost 20 minutes of playing time per game, he’s not producing like the Senators would like. He’s got only 6 points in his last 10 games and only one multi-point game this year, and that was a freakish three goal outburst. He’s a -2 on the season and the team around him isn’t getting much better, so if you have better options, look to deal him before he’s worthless.
Mattias Ohlund (Tampa Bay) – While I’m a big fan of the offensive core that Tampa has built with Stamkos, Malone, Lecavalier, and St. Louis, the defense doesn’t get into the scoring as much as fantasy owners would like. Ohlund is currently owned in 40% of Yahoo! leagues, which is awfully high for a guy who has just 6 points in 16 games. He took a lot of money to come here and isn’t producing enough to justify it as of yet. If you’re in bad enough shape to have a Tampa Bay defensive player in your starting lineup, you need to look elsewhere quickly before the serviceable players are taken.
Use caution with these guys…
Bill Guerin (Pittsburgh) – The Pens are scoring at the moment, and a lot of that has to with Malkin still being out of the lineup. They’ve had to shuffle lines constantly to try and find something that works, but without success so far. Just 1 point and a -6 in his last seven games isn’t what owners like to see after the surprising start he had.
Michael Frolik (Florida) – Even for a guy who was drafted in the late rounds, owners are still upset with his lack of production. The re-emergence on Steve Reinprecht and others has really diminished some of his value. Still getting quality playing time isn’t the issue, getting on the scorer’s sheet is: he has just 1 point in his last 9 games.)
Ilya Bryzgalov (Phoenix) – After maybe the most surprising start of the young NHL season, the big goaltender has faltered as of late, but I think you should consider the team he plays for. After 18 games this year, the Coyotes are averaging 2.50 goal per game. They are allowing 2.39 goals per game. These numbers are far too close for Phoenix to be a long-term fantasy goldmine. Either hope for the goal for to go up (way up) or hope that Bryzzy stops more of the shots that come at him (he only sees 27.3/game… 4th fewest in the NHL).
There are some seriously interesting games this weekend in the NHL that not only have the type of intrigue to make for an intensely great game, but also as a spot to score a buck or two. Consider the following:
Saturday, November 14
Anaheim @ Detroit, 7 pm (all times eastern) – Everyone can remember the countless games these two Western Conference “rivals” have played against each other the past few seasons. Keep an eye on this game though. The Wings are always one of the best home-ice teams in hockey year in and year out, with this season being no different. They are 5-1-1 at Joe Louis Arena and usually buckle down the defense when a high scoring team arrives. The Ducks haven’t really proven they can win on the road yet this season and traveling across that much of the country is bothersome to say the least. Detroit 4, Anaheim 2.
Washington @ New Jersey, 7 pm – Many thought that without Alexander Ovechkin in the lineup, the Caps would struggle to score as much as their followers are used to. However, the loss of #8, along with Mike Green’s absence, hasn’t stopped Washington from maintaining its goal scoring frenzy. They still lead the league in goals scored whereas the Devils are tied for first in goals allowed (with the Sabres). In most games, a good defense beats a good offense, and I tend to agree. New Jersey 3, Washington 2.
Vancouver @ Colorado, 10 pm – It’s looking more and more like these two teams are becoming the cream of the crop in the Northwest Division. In their previous two meetings this season, the Avs and Canucks each have a 3-0 over one another. Both of these wins came on the respective teams home ice. Vancouver will be getting this test on their way home from an east-coast road trip, so they will undoubtedly want to snag a win to gain some momentum. Look for Craig Anderson to come up with some big saves and help the Avs gain another two points. Colorado 3, Vancouver 1.
Sunday, November 15
San Jose @ Chicago, 7 pm – Every fantasy manager knows that the San Jose Sharks are a gold mine when it comes to accruing stats. For no other reason, I like the Sharks in this game. I will point out that Chicago has only allowed 38 goals in 15 games and when San Jose scores 2 goals or less, they are 1-5-0. San Jose 4, Chicago 2.
Let’s face it, quite a few high draft pick goalies aren’t performing well to start the season. (see: Osgood, Price, Ward, Mason, Toskala, Vokoun) You’re probably stuck with one of these guys (or like me, 2 of them) and wondering what to do. You really want to drop them, but you’re afraid that they’re going to inevitably turn their season around.
Some of these goalies will actually do that (I’d keep Ozzie, he’s going to get wins when his team is healthy – but I’d show Toskala the door.)
Here’s some easily attainable (owned in <50% of yahoo leagues) goalies who can get you quality spot starts while you wait out your starters:
Andrew Raycroft is still available in 80% of leagues and has played solidly in replace of Luongo. He got lit up the other night, but should still continue to put up decent numbers in his starts.
Ty Conklin Almost had his 2nd shutout the other day, but is continuing to improve in his limited starts. Sadly, the W’s will be few and far between unless he gets some better goal support.
Antero Niittymaki has 4 wins already and a GAA under 2. He’s also starting tonight against the Wild and makes an excellent play in daily leagues.
Tuukka Rask will also most likely get the Nod for the Bruins next, and also has a good likely hood of getting you some W’s
Dwayne Roloson has been on fire lately, posting 5 wins, but is only owned in about 40% of leagues.
Martin Biron, the other Isles goalie, is an even more interesting case. He’s going to be traded eventually, and he’s probably going to end up somewhere like Detroit or Montreal where he will become an instant upgrade and post much better numbers when he has an actual NHL caliber team playing in front of him. If you’ve got bench room, start thinking about stashing him away.
Jonas Gustavsson is healthy and looking like he’ll soon be the #1 man in Toronto. If he’s still on waivers in your league, I’d consider picking him up.
Rick DiPietro can’t obviously provide instant help, but he’s one I’ve got my eye on. He’s practicing again and will instantly resume the #1 role on the Island as soon as he’s healthy enough to do so. If he ever gets back to game shape he’s one that can steal W’s all by himself – which, he’s going to have to do given the talent in front of him.
Ondrej Pavelec is having a Terrible November, but it’s mostly the fault of lackluster defense not clearing the net and letting him see shots. If ATL ever figures out how to play in their own end, Pavelec will see the benefit.
Nikolai Khabibulin is not having a great year, but he’s still top 12 in wins right now.
Semyon Varlamov, while techincally a backup, is probably one who I’d tier with the starters. He’s 6-1 so far this year and the team in front of him is playing well. He’s a rookie though, so tread carefully. If it were me though, I’d run him out there every game he plays.
Phil Kessel netted his first goal as a leaf the other day. It’s a far stretch from a “great goal” since it probably would have gone in anyway had he not touched it (and I’m not just saying that because I own Blake in one of my leagues and am bitter about him stealing a goal….no I wouldn’t do that…) It’s “monumental” because the Leafs are counting on Kessel to provide a significant chunk of offense for them, and he hasn’t done that yet.
It’s easy to look past this goal, especially considering who it was scored against and how he’s playing this season (yeah, I own him too and am refusing to say his name)
Anyway, check it out – and be sure to mock it in the comments.
